Analysis the Variability of Agroclimatic Feasibility of Aloe Vera Cultivation in Hormozgan Province under four CO2 Representative Concentration Pathways

Agriculture is one of the most important aspect of human life that has strong relationship with climate condition. Therefore, any changes in climatic condition lead to significant changes in agriculture.  The main object of this study is to analyze the spatial dynamics of suitable agro climatic area of Aloe Vera cultivation in Hormozgan Province under climate change condition. Two types of date were used to determine the suitable agro climatic area for Alo-Vera Cultivation in Hormozgan Province namely:  minimum and maximum temperature, long term mean annual rainfall and environmental factors such as slop, aspect, soil type and elevation. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) also has been used to determine the special weight of each factor. The results from combination of variables showed that the southern coasts are the best regions to cultivate this herb. However, some parts were regarded as salt domes causing some limitations. The Northern parts was recognized as less significant regions for Aloe Vera growth. The Results indicated in 4 RCPs scenarios the agro climatic zones of Alo-Vera significantly changed in compared to current climatic condition. The results indicated that under RCP, 6 the spatial changes of Agroclimatic area of Aloe-Vera were greater than other scenarios.
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place in a global scale. Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways, including the changes in average temperatures, rainfall, and climate extremes (e.g., heat waves); changes in pests and diseases; changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and ground-level ozone concentrations; changes in the nutritional quality of some food and changes in sea level. Climate change has been affecting agriculture unevenly distributed across the world. Future climate change will likely affect  crop production negatively in low latitude countries, while effects on northern latitudes may be positive or negative. Climate change will probably increase the risk of food insecurity for some vulnerable groups, such as the poor. Agriculture contributes to climate change both by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and the conversion of non-agricultural land such as forests into agricultural land. Agriculture, forestry and land-use change contributed around 20 to 25% to global annual emissions in 2010. A range of policies can reduce the risk of negative climate change impacts on agriculture and greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector. Aloe Vera is a succulent plant species of the genus Aloe. An evergreen perennial, it originates from the Arabian Peninsula but grows wild in tropical climates around the world and is cultivated for agricultural and medicinal uses. The species is also used for decorative purposes growing successfully indoors as a potted plant. This plant naturally occurs in extremely dry and poor soils. It will grow well in many different types of soil, from sandy to moderately fertile loam, as long as it has good drainage. As a succulent plant, aloe requires very little water and does not respond well to overly wet soil. It can tolerate drought, but a small amount of water will do wonders for the plant. The main object of this study is to analyze the spatial dynamics of suitable agro climatic area of Aloe Vera cultivation in Hormozgan Province of Iran under climate change condition.
2-Materials and Methods
According to the main goal of this study, the analysis of the spatial dynamics of suitable agro climatic area of Aloe Vera cultivation in Hormozgan province under climate change condition, two types of date were used to determine the suitable agro climatic area for Alo-Vera cultivation in Hormozgan province.  First type of the data includes climatic data that contain minimum and maximum temperature and also long term mean annual rainfall. Second type of the data included environmental factors such as slop, aspect, soil type and elevation. The Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) also has been used to determine the special weight of each factor and consequently the weighted overly according to assigned weighted has been applied to produce the Agro climatic map of Aloe-Vera cultivation suitability in Hormozgan Province. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been used to simulate the agro climatic condition of 2050. They describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the coming years: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The agro-climatic factors of Aloe Vera cultivation have been simulated under four RCPs and the Agro climatic map of Aloe-Vera cultivation suitability in Hormozgan province has been produced again for each RCP and compared to the agro climatic map of based period.
3-Results and Discussion
The results of AHP algorithm based on 45 questioners, lead to developing the overlaying function to produce the Aloe-Vera cultivation suitability map as equation 1:
 
Equation 1) the overlying function producing Aloe-Vera cultivation suitability map:
 
Based on this equation the feasibility map of Aloe Vera cultivation in Hormozgan province has been produced which showed that the southern coasts are the best regions to cultivate Aloe Vera. The northern part of studying area suffered from low minimum temperature during the growing season of Aloe Vera that limited the Aloe Vera cultivation. Therefore, the northern parts of the study area was recognized as less significant regions for Aloe Vera growth. However, some parts have stains and regarded as salt domes and cause some limitations. The results indicated in 4 RCPs the agro climatic zones of Alo-Vera significantly changed in compared to current climatic condition. The results indicated that under RCP 6 the spatial changes of Agro climatic area of Aloe-Vera were greater than other scenarios.
4-Conclusion
Climate change, as one of the main human faced challenges, leads to various and significant side effect in human life. Agriculture, as one of the most important aspect of human life, a has strong relationship with climate condition, so that any changes in climatic condition lead to significant changes in agriculture. The results of this study reveal that the southern portion of Hormozgan province is more suitable for Aloe Vera cultivation. In 4 RCPs the agro climatic zones of Alo-Vera cultivation  significantly has changed in compared to current climatic condition.