Identification and Analysis of Cross-Impacts of Key Factors and Assessing the Level of Regional Sustainability with a Strategic Foresight Approach (A Case Study of Northern Khorasan Province)

In the current era, characterized by uncertainty, initiative, and complexity of issues, the traditional planning system faces various challenges. In fact, lack of identification, analysis, and implementation of key factors in regional development is considered as one of the weaknesses of regional planning systems. Therefore, the present research has been conducted with a foresight approach aiming to identify key factors in development of Northern Khorasan province. This study has applied the technique of analyzing cross-impacts. Besides, MICMAC software has been used to analyze the data. The results of analyzing the effectiveness of factors indicate an unsustainable situation in the regional system of northern Khorasan province. Applying the results obtained from this research and the initial factor analysis, 17 key factors were identified in the development of the region. Out of these factors, “development of new main roads for trans-provincial connections”, “existence of integrated rural territories”, “geopolitical situation of the province in relation to the Eastern Asia road”, “promotion of intra-provincial secondary roads in line with development of the settlement system”, “relative balance at the top of the urban system of the province”, “straightening border markets”, and “A variety of economic sectors with an average functionality” are the key factors which can be used as a base to outline scenarios and spatial allocation at provincial level. The result of these studies and identification of key factors are a basis for sustainable policymaking of spatial development in the future of the province that can integrate all the sectional and spatial measures and scenario makings at local levels into itself.
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
In the present era, characterized by uncertainty, initiative, and change, the urban and regional planners have been increasingly trying to apply various forms of future-oriented approaches and strategic planning to respond the challenges created by contemporary evolutions, competitions among cities, sustainability agenda, evolution of urban governance, etc. The predominant scale and intensity of urban and regional problems in the world suggest that the current planning practices and processes cannot efficiently actualize their primary goals. In fact, the traditional planning approaches neither recognize today’s challenges, nor face them. During the recent decades, future studies have been widely used in the planning of regional development called “regional foresight”. Besides, future studies have significantly expanded the recognition of processes and the forces which make the future. Moreover, they involve a wide range of methods and techniques providing the ability to discover what lies ahead in the form of a systematic, exact and comprehensive method.
One of the initial steps-and indeed the most basic step- in the process of regional planning with a foresight approach is the identification of key strategic factors and the main drives and its position in long-term development of regions. Hence, identification and analysis of key factors of development can be considered as a driving force for regional development in long-term regional planning and policy making which might be also effective and useful factors in outlining the long-term perspective of the province for citizens, decision-making managers, stakeholders and investors. From this perspective, the basic question of the present research is: why is northern Khorasan province been separated from the greater Khorasan province as an independent province since 2004, despite having geographic, economic, and economic potentials, still positioned among the country’s disadvantaged provinces? Is the slow process of development and progress in northern Khorasan province due to not identifying and moving towards key development factors? 
2- Materials and Methods
The present research is an applied study, and it is a normative-analytical research in terms of its nature based on future studies. This research has been conducted with a combination of library and survey methods. Initially, a collection of factors affecting the development of the region including 5o factors were extracted from regional plans as well as experts’ views. In the second stage, a matrix of factors was designed which was was completed by 13 experts in planning and development and the administrators who were aware of the issues of regional development; then, the relationships between the factors and the degree of their interaction were analyzed and classified into two categories of direct and indirect effects. Cross-Impacts table of MICMAC software was used to perform the calculations.   
3- Results and Discussion
Results of analyzing the distribution pattern of factors on the Cross-Impacts axis demonstrate the instable situation of the regional system of northern Khorasan province. The effective factors are generally those factors which are outside the decision-making scope in the region and have national and international dimensions; and in contrast, the affected factors are generally the result of other planning, policy-makings, and decision-makings. The affecting factors include such factors as oil price, location of the province in relation to East Asia road, control of inflation and economic growth. The affected factors, which are also considered as the resulted factors, are the factors called “promoting the level of social security services”, “local-indigenous sports”, and “local-indigenous arts”. Comparing the findings of these studies with the present research indicates some similarities in methodology, and distinction in the results as well as unsustainability in the interaction system of factors on each other which can be considered as the result of the current poor planning system, and lack of study and management of the level of interaction among development factors of regions.
4- Conclusion
The present research has dealt with identification and analysis of key development factors of northern Khorasan region. Analyzing 50 primary factors, 17 factors were finally derived from the views of experts and administrators. The factors were recognized as key factors in the development of the province which have a relatively high diversity and involve a wide range of factors ranging from international to national and regional, economic, social, and physical factors. Out of the factors, the ones such as “development of new main roads for trans-provincial connections”, “existence of integrated rural territories”, “geopolitical situation of the province in relation to the East Asia road”, "promotion of intra-provincial secondary roads in line with development of the settlement system”, “relative balance at the top of the urban system of the province”, “straightening the border markets”, and “A variety of economic sectors with an average functionality” can be considered as the key factors which can be used as an outlining basis to study the scenarios for development of the region. In conclusin, it can be argued that the most important characteristic of the province can be the diversity of factors and lack of one or more factors with strong impact. At the provincial level, there is an extensive ethical and lingual diversity, as well as a wide diversity in agricultural, garden, livestock, and industrial products which have made its potentials multi-dimensional and divers. Besides, this important factor can be applied in policy-makings and decision-makings.