Evaluation of Probable Consequences of water Transfer of from Zab River to Lake Urmia

Abstract
Reliable water supply is one of the main challenges of this century. One of the ways of water supply is inter-basin water transfer schemes which can be useful in some cases and could save the destination basin. One of the projects, discussed recently, is water transfer project from Zab River basin to Urmia Lake. This study made an attempt to utilize the opinions of one hundred relevant experts and authorities to predict the positive and negative logistical consequences of this transfer in the basin of origin and destination by the statistical analysis of Multivariate linear regression. The results of linear regression model showed that due to the weight of standardized coefficients of the examined factors (B2), negative socio-cultural consequences of (0.328), negative economic consequences of (0.249), positive economic outcome of (0.216), negative environmental consequences of (0.210), negative political and security consequences of (0.174), positive environmental impact of (0.156), positive outcome of the political-security of (0.087), and the positive outcome of socio-cultural of (0.070), are the most possible consequences of transferring water from Zab to Urmia Lake respectively. According to experts, the interesting and significant point is that water transport in terms of environmental issues cannot save Urmia Lake and may act as an antidote. The results of structural equation modeling on each of the components of the implementation plan showed that among the positive consequences; environmental factors with the effect of (. 85), and among the negative consequences; socio-cultural factors with the effect of (1.10) have the highest impact on water transport.
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Management and water policy has been increasing in the world, especially due to more water need, since the beginning of the 1980s. In other words, the developmental projects were only concerned with physical control of water which was in line with economic benefits and there was little attention to social and environmental impacts. Such an approach laid undesirable and sometimes irreparable effects on ecosystems and communities. Of course, water resource abundance-based management theories must be provided based on the assumptions of limited water resources.  Iran, as a country located in semi-arid belt, has several issues and challenges in water supply as the main pillar of development.
In recent years, the intensification of the phenomenon of drought, and reduction of water resources to Urmia Lake, has caused a sharp drop in its water level. It is predicted that by continuing drought and drying the greater part of the lake and lack of appropriate decisions, the blast of coastal winds trigger the transfer of salt and sequestration in agricultural lands around the lake, and resulted the deterioration of the quality of agricultural lands which finally could make salty lands that cause unemployment and migration of the people in the region respectively. Some important schemes in this regard can be transferring of filtration wastewater of refinery basin to Urmia Lake, releasing the water stored in Dams of the Province such as Shahid Kazemi dam, dredging rivers of lakes basin, equipping farmland to Modern irrigation system and Inter-basin water transfer. Inter-basin water transfer schemes which are proposed to revive the lake are: Transferring water from the Caspian Sea, Aras River and catchment Zab. The only workable plan among these choices is transferring water from Zab which has been approved and conducted utilizing collection system and transfer tunnels from the lake dams of Kani Sib and Silveh to the ford river basin and finally to the Urmia Lake.
2- Materials and Methods
The present study enjoins the applied research design.  Data collection tools are divided into two categories of library and field. In the first part, by studying the current literature in the subject area studied, attempts have been made to derive the positive and negative factors which were behind the policy of inter-basin water transition. In the field study, a valid questionnaire was designed and distributed to the population of study in two areas of residential areas of source and destination which were completed by both university professors and directors of executive agencies. Structural equation modeling in lisrel software was used to analyze the data and determine the relative effects of inter-basin water transition on each component . Besides, Pearson's correlation coefficient was applied to measure the correlation and relationship among the variables and the effect of each variable on the other one. Moreover, multivariate linear regression was used to predict the consequences of transferring water in the basin of source and destination.
3- Results and Discussion
The results of linear regression model showed that, negative socio-cultural consequences of (0.328), negative economic consequences of (0.249), positive economic outcome of (0.216), negative environmental consequences of (0.210), political and security consequences of (0.174), positive environmental impact of (0.156), positive outcome of the political-security of (0.087), and the positive outcome of socio-cultural of (0.070) are the most probable consequences of transferring water from Zab to Urmia Lake respectively, especially due to the weight of standardized coefficients of the examined factors. Transferring water from Zab to Urmia Lake definitely will follow positive and negative consequences which in this section at first positive outcomes and then negative outcomes are going to be discussed. Based on the survey results, positive environmental outcomes of 0.85, positive socio-cultural consequences of 0.77, positive economic consequences of 0.67, positive political and security implications of 0.53, have direct impact on the process of transition water. However, regarding four investigated factors, it was found that negative social-cultural outcomes with the effect rate of 1.10, the negative environmental consequences with effect rate of 0.48, the negative political and security implications outcomes with the effect rate of .43 and negative economic consequences with the effect rate of 0.39, have the highest impact on the feasibility of the project to transfer water from Zab to Urmia Lake respectively. The results indicate the fact that, for various reasons, including ethnic and religious differences in the two areas of source and destination, if the water transfer project in the area of destination and recipient followed the environmental and economic improvement, at the same time it could lead to the negative social - cultural consequences of the source or sender areas.
4- Conclusion
Staff revival of the Lake and other executive agencies as trustees and coordinators of proceedings, placed several projects and programs on their agendas; in which the most important proceedings is inter-basin water transfer project from Zab to Urmia Lake considered as the most important proposed scheme in this regard. Undoubtedly, the proposed scheme like most of the inter-basin water transition plans, have negative (often to the areas of source), and positive aspects (often for the catchment area of destination). Therefore, the continuation of transferring water from Zab to Urmia Lake to meet the major environmental concerns of the Lake is proposed. Moreover, the following items are proposed to increase the effectiveness of positive components in the destination and reduce the impact of negative components;
- Pay attention to different ways of water supply for Urmia Lake through new sources, managing the consumption of water in the area of Urmia Lake, and suitable protecting of the quality and quantity of available resources.
- Pay attention to the demands of the people who live in the source areas in order to bring together their thoughts with the administrators’ schemes.
- Pay attention to the economic justification and considering the principle of cost-benefit during the implementation and post-implementation of the transition plan.