Analysis the Spatial Changes of Urban Environment in the Mashhad Metropolis Using the Natural Step Future Study Approach

Abstract
Since the main theme of any geographical analysis is the emphasis on space and its environmental concepts, any change in the relationship between humans and the urban environment can be considered as the final production of human desire to change their settlement areas to overcome the environmental and spatial nature of the city. Accordingly, the present study attempts to analyze the spatial transformations in the urban environment scale by utilizing the natural step foresight approach in the context of urban environment indicators. Therefore, descriptive- analytical studies, documentary and questionnaire in the frame of Delphi model and software analyses were applied. After holding the initial discussion sessions with 50 academic elites and executive’s managers of Mashhad city, as statistical research society, 78 variables were identified in the frame of 16 general classifications. In continuous, the primary variables were defined in the Mic Mac and Scenario wizard future study software’s in the context of cross-impact matrix. Then, the statistical society were asked to assess the variables in term of the direct, indirect and potential influence- dependence rates in the range of 0 (null) to 3 (strong influence).  The results showed that the obtained fill rate is equal to 95.79% with two data iterations representing the high level of variables influencing each other. Based on the findings, integrated urban environmental management index (ME4) with 188 scores has the most direct impact on other variables, while development and the promotion of urban recycling regulations index with calculated linear value of 5,585,944 had the most indirect impact on other key variables. Finally, considering the identified key driving forces, the favorable, middle and tragedy scenarios were presented.
Extended Abstract
1 -Introduction
 Since the main theme of any geographical analysis is the emphasis on space and its environmental concepts, therefore, any change in the relationship between humans and the urban environment can be considered as the final product of human desire to change their settlement areas to overcome the environmental and spatial nature of the city. In this context, spatial change in the urban environment can be considered as a socio-economic, environmental, political and spatial policy function that has had different effects on urban space in the different periods of time and various conditions. Moreover, it makes the concepts of space and urban environment face the fundamental transformation. Thus, paying attention to the urban environment challenges and trying to solve them are of great importance. There are some minor studies about the urban environmental crisis in term of future and strategic studies. For the first time, Lefebvre has considered the urban environment space transformation discussion in the philosophical scale by the expression of space dialectic. Phdungsilp has analyzed the urban environment regarding strategic planning and sustainable city approach mentioning three models of Robinson pattern, natural step and technological planning to access the sustainability of the city concerning environment parameters.
2- Materials and Methods
 The applied method is considered analytical intrinsically and, according to the results, practical. Furthermore, descriptive- analytical studies, documentary and questionnaire in the framework of Delphi and cross-impact matrices analysis using Micmac and scenario wizard software were used. Therefore, the data from 50 questionnaires were categorized into 16 classifications and 78 variables to enter the software. After this classification, the experts were asked to evaluate the groups in term of influencing and affecting from 0 to P values (0=Null, 1=Weak, 2=Average, 3=Strong, P=Potential). Finally, the favourable, middle and tragedy scenarios have been presented.
3- Results and Discussion
 The findings revealed that the obtained fill rate is equal to 95.79%with two data iterations representing the high level of variables influencing each other. Besides, based on the findings, integrated urban environmental management index (ME4) with 188 scores had the most direct impact on other variables, while development and promotion of urban recycling regulations index with calculated linear values of 5,585,944 had the most indirect impact on other variables. Finally, the research scenarios were presented in the frame of 3 main scenarios and 36 predicted situations about Mashhad metropolis environmental challenges using TNS approach. According to results and presented background, the reliability of research tool was measured through arranging discussion meetings, modifying the basic assumptions, developing the key assumptions and refining the questionnaire basis on the elite’s views. Therefore, it can be easily concluded that the urban environment system in Mashhad metropolis is faced with huge volatility, such as the way that the continuation of current status will lead to the occurrence of disaster scenario and in the best case, if the current situation continues, the urban environment will be accompanied by widespread destruction.
4- Conclusion
 The present study aimed to present the favorable pattern in Mashhad metropolis urban environment transformation using urban environment approach and the parameters such as physical- spatial variables, social and cultural, urban environment quality, urban ecosystem diversity, economic- natural cycles in the urban districts, population and immigration elements, poverty and marginalization, climate change applying natural step foresight approach in the context of urban environment indicators and Mic Mac future study, strategic pattern, and cross impacts matrix analysis in the frame of TNS approach.So that with the short, medium and long-term strategy, planning and observing the implementing of these strategies, different ways will be provided to catch sustainable urban development model in the urban environment scale. Thus, the fundamental solution preventing environmental degradation in the Mashhad metropolis is deep thinking and business observations to the environment in the frame of long-term sustainability approaches.