Designing a Comprehensive Model for Evaluating the Resilience of Green Infrastructure Using a Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Approach and Urban Acupuncture

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department Landscape Artitecture, Minab Higher Education Center, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbass, Iran.

2 Department of Environmental Planning, Management and Education, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Urban green infrastructure plays a vital role in achieving ecological sustainability, yet its resilience has markedly declined in recent decades due to rapid urban expansion. This study develops a comprehensive model for assessing the resilience of urban green infrastructure in Tehran. In the first phase, land use changes in 1997, 2010, and 2023 were analyzed using Landsat satellite imagery processed in the IDRISI software environment. Ecological metrics of green patches were then calculated with FRAGSTATS software. Subsequently, eleven resilience indicators across ecological, social, economic, and physical dimensions were identified through the Delphi method, with their relative weights determined using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). In the final stage, spatial information layers were integrated using the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method to generate a five-class resilience map. The urban acupuncture approach was further applied to identify and analyze critical vulnerability points. Results revealed a sharp reduction in green infrastructure, from 7,396 hectares in 1997 to 4,171 hectares in 2023, with much of this area converted into built-up land. Ecological analysis indicated severe degradation in the continuity and cohesion of green patches. Among the eleven indicators, ecological ones carried the highest weights, including Mean Core Area (0.1423), Largest Patch Index (0.1254), and Mean Contiguity Index (0.1027). The final resilience map highlighted the southern and central districts of Tehran as the most vulnerable, exhibiting the lowest resilience levels. Based on these findings, a set of protective, defensive, and opportunistic strategies was proposed to strengthen resilience in vulnerable areas. This integrated framework provides a practical tool for urban planning and management, supporting more sustainable approaches to safeguarding Tehran’s ecological assets.
 
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
The rapid expansion of urbanization and human activity in recent decades has exerted mounting pressure on natural ecosystems and green infrastructure. Currently, more than half of the global population resides in cities, and projections indicate that this proportion may reach 86% by 2050. This accelerating trend, coupled with uncontrolled and sprawling urban development, has resulted in extensive habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, and a deterioration in urban quality of life. Green infrastructure—including parks, urban forests, riparian corridors, and open spaces—plays a vital role in improving environmental conditions within cities. Yet, unsustainable development practices, inappropriate land use, and the absence of coordinated, integrated management threaten the long-term viability of these systems. Consequently, identifying and evaluating the factors that influence the resilience of green infrastructure is of critical importance.
 
2-Materials and Methods
This study examines the resilience of urban green infrastructure in Tehran and introduces a hybrid model based on fuzzy multi-criteria analysis to evaluate its performance. Land cover changes were analyzed across three time periods (1997, 2010, and 2023) using Landsat 8 satellite imagery and OLI sensors with a spatial resolution of 30 meters, obtained from the USGS database. Image classification was initially conducted through an unsupervised method, followed by geometric and atmospheric corrections. The data were then classified using the maximum likelihood algorithm in IDRISI software. Classification accuracy was assessed through an error matrix, overall accuracy, and the Kappa coefficient. To measure changes in the sustainability of green infrastructure, landscape metrics—including the Largest Patch Index, Mean Contiguity Index, Core Mean Area, and Mean Shape Index—were applied. Furthermore, resilience criteria were identified and weighted using the Delphi method combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A panel of 35 urban experts categorized the criteria into four dimensions: ecological (Core Mean Area, Largest Patch, Mean Shape Index, Mean Contiguity Index, Distance from Faults), social (Population Density, Illiteracy Rate), economic (Land Price, Unemployment Rate), and physical (Distance from Fire Stations, Distance from Hazardous Industries).In the final stage, fuzzy multi-criteria modeling was employed for spatial data analysis. This approach is particularly effective under conditions of uncertainty, offering a more precise evaluation of resilience factors. The Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method was then applied to generate a comprehensive resilience map of Tehran’s green infrastructure. Finally, drawing on the principles of urban acupuncture, targeted strategies were proposed to guide interventions at critical points within the city.
3- Results and Discussion
The findings reveal a substantial decline in Tehran’s green infrastructure, which decreased from 7,396 hectares in 1997 to 4,171 hectares in 2023. Over the same period, human-made land expanded from 35,979 hectares to 54,546 hectares, while barren land contracted from 21,526 hectares to 6,185 hectares. The reduction in green infrastructure area highlights a significant loss of connectivity and integration within the city’s ecological networks. Resilience analysis, conducted across ecological, social, economic, and physical dimensions, demonstrated diverse and notable impacts on the sustainability of green infrastructure. Ecological indicators exhibited the sharpest decline between 1997 and 2023. The Largest Patch Index fell from 0.99 to 0.43, signaling fragmentation and dispersal of green spaces. Similarly, the Core Mean Area decreased from 6.79 hectares to 4.73 hectares, while the Mean Contiguity Index dropped from 0.117 to 0.093. Among the 11 resilience criteria, ecological indicators carried the greatest weight in the final model (Core Mean Area: 0.1423; Largest Patch Index: 0.1254). Spatial analysis revealed that Zones 1, 3, 13, and 22—characterized by larger and more cohesive green patches—exhibited higher resilience and stronger capacity to deliver ecosystem services. In contrast, areas with high population density and unemployment, such as Zones 10 and 14, placed greater pressure on natural resources, reducing both the quality and resilience of green spaces. Economic factors also played a critical role: in high-value land zones (e.g., Zones 1, 2, and 3), conversion of green areas into residential or commercial developments posed severe threats and contributed to rising pollution levels. Physical criteria further influenced resilience outcomes. Proximity to seismic faults, fire stations, and hazardous industries shaped vulnerability, with areas near faults and polluting industries facing heightened risks. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to strengthen resilience. Overall, the study suggests that the urban acupuncture approach offers an effective framework for identifying critical points and enhancing the resilience of green infrastructure. By applying protective, defensive, opportunistic, and aggressive strategies, cities can better safeguard ecological assets and improve urban sustainability.
 
4- Conclusion
This research presents a comprehensive framework for evaluating the resilience of urban green infrastructure in Tehran, integrating ecological, social, economic, and physical dimensions. The findings reveal that Tehran’s green infrastructure has undergone substantial reductions in both area and connectivity in recent decades. This decline is most evident in ecological metrics such as the Largest Patch Index, Mean Contiguity Index, and Core Mean Area, which collectively highlight the fragmentation and growing vulnerability of green spaces. Ecological indicators—particularly Core Mean Area and Largest Patch Index—emerged as the most influential factors in the final resilience model. Their sharp decline, especially in the central and southern districts of Tehran, underscores the deterioration of ecological quality and the heightened exposure of these areas to environmental risks and climate change. Social and economic analyses further demonstrated the indirect but significant impacts of population density, land prices, unemployment, and illiteracy on resilience. Districts with high population density and elevated land values face acute risks of green space loss, intensifying resilience challenges and contributing to environmental degradation. Drawing on the principles of urban acupuncture, this study proposes corrective strategies across four levels—protective, defensive, opportunistic, and aggressive. These strategies provide a practical pathway for strengthening the resilience of green infrastructure against ecological, social, economic, and physical pressures. Ultimately, the proposed model offers an effective tool for urban planning and management, supporting more sustainable and adaptive approaches to safeguarding Tehran’s ecological assets.

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Main Subjects

References

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