Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) of Factors Affecting Water Bankruptcy in the Forbidden Mahidasht Plain: Implications for Water Policymakers

The increasing demand for groundwater in recent decades has sparked conflicts over the exploitation of this vital resource. Excessive extraction has led water experts to introduce the "water bankruptcy" concept, as many regions, including the Mahidasht Plain in Kermanshah Province, face severe water depletion. Understanding the factors contributing to water bankruptcy has thus become crucial. This qualitative study aims to model the factors influencing water bankruptcy. The research population comprised 25 participants, including experts from the Regional Water Company, water experts in the Agricultural Jihad Organization, faculty members from the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources at Razi University, and farmers from the Mahidasht Plain. The study employed purposive sampling through the critical case method. Using interpretive structural modeling (ISM), researchers first identified 13 key factors. They then analyzed the relationships between these factors affecting water bankruptcy. Finally, they employed the MICMAC analysis to evaluate the influence of these factors. The resulting research model consists of six levels. At the sixth level, two factors emerged as the most influential on water bankruptcy in the Mahidasht Plain: "sanctions and economic instability" and "lack of awareness and traditional farmers' beliefs regarding water harvesting". This study offers significant implications for policymakers. By understanding the factors contributing to water bankruptcy in the Mahidasht Plain, they can develop operational solutions to address the current situation and preventive measures for similar scenarios in other regions.
 
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Iran is located in an arid and semi-arid sector known as the most water-scarce in the region. The water crisis has been an important issue for people and policymakers for several decades (Islami and Rahimi, 2019). In addition to climate change, inappropriate water management has exacerbated the water crisis. This problem is especially evident in the agricultural sector, which is closely related to water resources. According to Iranian experts and the UN classification, water reserves are running out and have created a severe water crisis (Islami and Rahimi, 2019). Consequently, the amount of renewable water in the country has reached 89 billion cubic meters (average of the last 10 years) from the long-term average of 130 billion cubic meters (Mazaheri and Abdul Manafi, 2016). In addition, out of 609 water Plains, 404 Plains are in a prohibited or critical condition, and the total volume deficit of Iran's Plains reservoir is estimated at 4867.8 (MCM) (Ministry of Energy Protection and Operation Deputy, 2019).
Among these Plains, Mahidasht, located in Kermanshah province, has been announced as forbidden and introduced as a Plain since 2007. The average yearly rainfall for 2022-4 was 144.9 mm in the Mahidasht Plain. This amount was reduced by 31% compared to the long term (Ghamarnia, 2022). Also, the one-year trend of SPI changes in rain gauge stations of Kermanshah township showed that the Mahidasht rain gauge station has faced 17 years of meteorological drought in a period of 30 years (1986 to 2015) (Sharafi et al., 2020). This indicates a dependency of Mahidasht Plain on annual rainfall. In addition, continuous droughts and over-harvesting of water by farmers have reduced reservoir volume in Mahidasht Plain by -260.20 m3 (Ghamarnia, 2022). Other researchers have clearly shown the critical situation of the plain in terms of aquifer depletion and water poverty (Veisi et al., 2021; Zarafshani and Sadvandi, 2017).
Thus, water resource experts have made an alarming sound and declared “water bankruptcy” as a post-crisis stage for the water situation in Iran. They believe the country is facing WB because the "liabilities" (water withdrawals) exceed the "reasonable value of assets held" (rates of aquifer recharge and recharge by surface water) (Collins, 2017). Water bankruptcy seems to place Iran in the most unprecedented historical challenges. This challenge can make significant parts of the ancient geographical-political territory uninhabitable and can be a prelude to political-social crises that endanger territorial integrity (Fattahi, 2018). Therefore, it is important to identify the factors that affect water bankruptcy. Thus, the main goal of this qualitative study is modeling the factors affecting water bankruptcy in the Mahidasht Plain in Kermanshah Province using Interpretive Structural Modeling.
 
2-Materials and Methods
This study used a qualitative method with a case study approach. The population of this study comprised Experts in Agricultural Organization, Regional Water Company, faculty members in the College of Agriculture, and farmers in Mahidasht Plain in Kermanshah Province. In this study, Purposeful sampling through “critical case method” was used as a sampling frame of the study. Finally, 15 experts participated in the study. Also, 10 key informant farmers were interviewed through semi-structured interviews (a total of 25 people).
To analyze the data, the interpretive structural modeling (ISM) technique was used. In the first stage of ISM (identification of variables), using content analysis and open and axial coding, factors affecting water bankruptcy in the Mahidasht plain were identified (13 factors). In the next stage of ISM, these factors (13 factors) became the basis for designing a questionnaire to form a structural self-interaction matrix (SSIM) and reachability matrix, etc. Then, the questionnaire was provided to water experts (7 people) so that these experts could give their opinions on determining the level and relationships between the factors. Finally, using MICMAC analysis, the effective factors were determined concerning driving power and dependence power.
 3- Results and Discussion
The results showed that the research model consists of 6 levels. The resulting research model consists of six levels. At the sixth level, two factors emerged as the most influential on water bankruptcy in the Mahidasht Plain: "sanctions and economic instability" and "lack of awareness and traditional farmers' beliefs regarding water harvesting". These two factors are the initiators of water bankruptcy in the Mahidasht Plain. This means that water bankruptcy is the result of the management and behavior of the socio-ecological environment of the actors rather than climatic factors (Fattahi et al., 2024). Other factors (9 factors) such as "unrealistic valuation of water prices, condensation of the soil, non-mechanized agriculture, the numerous authorized and unauthorized wells, the expansion of land leasing, the expansion of water-intensive crops, the implementation of the wheat self-sufficiency plan, weakness in water governance, and continuous droughts" have high influence and dependence, and these factors affect other factors.
4- Conclusion
The results of this study have important implications for policymakers, such that they can be aware of the factors affecting water bankruptcy in the Mahidasht Plain and can apply preventive solutions for similar situations.