Assessing Land Use Change Impact on Ecosystem Services (Case Study: Wetland And Biosphere Reserve of Miankaleh)

Changes in land use sometimes lead to changes in the natural functioning of the environment and the long term, affect the provision of ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, today, the investigation of land use changes has become one of the most important factors in land management decisions. In this study, with different defined scenarios, land use was modeled and the impact of each scenario on selected ecosystem services in Miankale biosphere reserve in Mazandaran province was mapped. At first, the current situation was determined and the land use map was drawn using satellite images. Land use scenario writing based on questionnaires completed by experts and decision-makers in the field of environment and natural resources, including environmental conservation, economic development, and sustainable development, and the scenario of continuing the existing process, and at the end, land use change modeling and mapping of selected ecosystem services (water supply, habitat provision, air regulation, and soil erosion), under the applied scenarios, the output of the modeling of selected ecosystem services was evaluated. The results showed that in the 3 ecosystem services of soil erosion protection, water supply, and habitat provision, the highest value of better quality ecosystem services is available for the environmental, sustainable development, economic, and trend scenarios. For better air regulation services the environmental scenario, The sustainable development scenario, the existing trend scenario, and the existing economic scenario provided the most ecological services. Also, the current trend of land use changes is the most destructive mode of providing ecosystem services in the future. To reduce the environmental effects of the current trend of land use changes, it is suggested to prevent the construction and development of industries, especially petrochemical industries and power plants in the region, and to systematically preserve wetland and forest uses by relying on the participation of local communities.
 
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Ecosystems are a crucial part of the Earth, providing a foundation for the continuation of human and terrestrial life. They can supply goods and services essential for human needs. Rapid population growth will result in significant changes in economic activities, increased urbanization, and alterations in land use to meet demands for food, freshwater, and other ecosystem goods. Therefore, to prevent further destruction of ecosystems, maintaining ecosystem services has become a key concept in local policy-making, land conservation planning, and environmental valuation. The Miankaleh biosphere reserve and wildlife refuges, located in the north of the Bandargaz- Behshahr watershed, comprise two parts of the aquatic and terrestrial environment. The health of this area is crucial for maintaining the overall health of the Caspian Sea. Given its unique features and the problems arising from mismanagement and land use changes due to population growth and pressure on the Miankaleh ecosystem, this study simulates various land use policy scenarios by examining past land use changes and developing future scenarios. Integrated scenario writing methods involving decision-makers, managers, experts, local people, and stakeholders. Markov chain-based tools and InVEST software were used to identify and model the continuation of existing land use trends under different scenarios.
2-Materials and Methods
In this study, four ecosystem services—water supply, habitat provision, air regulation, and soil erosion—were evaluated in the Miankaleh biosphere reserve for current land use and three future land use scenarios. These scenarios were developed through questionnaires, which included weighting and preferential valuation of each land use by 120 decision-makers and experts, analyzed using superdecision software and the scenario generator tool in InVEST 3.12.0 software. To examine the trend of land use changes over 30 years, land use maps were used, created through supervised classification in Idrisi TerrSet software using Landsat 5 (1990), Landsat 7, and 8 ETM+ (2005 and 2020) satellite images. To predict land use changes over the next 30 years, LCM models in Idrisi software were employed. Scenarios were based on the direct and indirect values of ecosystem services. In the economic scenario, the highest importance was given to direct or market ecosystem services, while in the environmental and sustainable development scenarios, non-market services were prioritized. The results demonstrate how the provision of ecosystem services and their economic valuation methods are effective in various land use management and planning strategies.
 
3- Results and Discussion
In Scenario A1, the land use change scenario for 2050 was mapped using Markov chain analysis based on the past 30 years of maps. Scenario A2 focuses on environmental protection, emphasizing the preservation and restoration of the Miankaleh wetland and forest areas, and preventing their conversion to residential, agricultural, or pasture lands. Scenario A3 is purely economically driven, largely neglecting the protection of natural resources and non-market ecosystem services. In Scenario A4, both environmental and economic aspects are considered together. This study identified land use change as the most significant factor affecting ecosystem services. Land use scenarios were developed by decision-makers, managers, experts, natural resources and environmental specialists, and local people to model the impacts of different land use scenarios on ecosystem services. In Scenarios A1 and A3, non-market ecosystem services were not considered, focusing solely on economic development, which led to a significant reduction in ecosystem services. Scenario A1 was identified as the most destructive. In Scenarios A2 and A4, both market and non-market ecosystem services were considered. Scenario A2 focused on natural resource conservation, leading to an increase in ecosystem services. In Scenario A4, ecosystem services were somewhat preserved, with a slight decrease compared to the base year. The results showed that for soil erosion protection, water supply, and habitat provision, the highest value of ecosystem services was found in the environmental, sustainable development, economic, and current trend scenarios, respectively. For air regulation services, the order was environmental, sustainable development, current trends, and economic scenarios. The current trend of land use changes is the most destructive for future ecosystem services.
 
4- Conclusion
Land use change modeling is challenging due to economic, political, social, and ecological complexities. The InVEST scenario modeling tool provides a practical and comprehensive method for this purpose. The results indicated that land use changes generally reduce ecosystem services. Therefore, regional and spatial planning should be revised, prioritizing environmental assessment and protection. Following the environmental scenario can help decision-makers in more effective ecosystem conservation. A basic guide for wetland valuation can assist users in identifying values and implementing appropriate management and planning policies. It is recommended to prevent the establishment and development of industries, especially petrochemical and power plants, in the region and to systematically preserve wetland and forest uses with local community participation.