Analyzing the Effects of Meteorological Drought on Vegetation Dynamics in the Golestan Province

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Forest Science and Engineering, Faculty of of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

2 Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

3 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of earth science, Shahid Beheshty University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22126/ges.2024.10786.2762

Abstract

The characteristics of drought as one of the environmental events may affect climate changes in the future. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of meteorological drought on vegetation dynamics from 2001 to 2021 in the Golestan province, northern Iran, using remote sensing satellite images. First, using MATLAB software, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated in time scales of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months for the Golestan province with a statistical period of 20 years and zoned in ArcGIS software with IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting) Interpolation Method. In the next step, we obtained the maximum value of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) per month from the MODI3Q1 product of the MODIS spectrometer. Also, using Tersest software, the correlation and line slope of EVI index changes were calculated based on SPEI index changes. The results of correlation analysis showed that in 54.19% of the area of Golestan province, 6-month SPEI changes have the maximum correlation with the EVI index compared to SPEI in other periods. As a result, the highest impact of drought on vegetation in most parts of the study area is related to the 6-month SPEI in May. The results of vegetation sensitivity to meteorological drought showed that in the south of Golestan province, which is covered with dense forest conditions and includes the eastern slopes of Alborz spread in the form of a strip from the west to the east of the province, the vegetation has relatively low sensitivity to the phenomenon of drought due to suitable climatic conditions and the relative humidity of the air. The research results can be used in long-term planning for sustainable natural resources management.
 
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Drought is a complex and natural phenomenon that occurs frequently or intermittently in any climate. The global air temperature is constantly changing under the influence of climate change, and the spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall and land use is expected to change significantly in the coming decades. The location of Iran in dry and desert areas has caused the amount of rainfall in some periods to be lower than the long-term annual average. Even though Golestan province is located in the north of Iran and is affected by the humidity of the Caspian Sea, limited research has been done in the field of drought monitoring and management in Golestan province. Satellite data provides the possibility of identifying the damaged vegetation in all types of uses and assessing the severity of the damage. In this research, using remote sensing technology and satellite images, the impact of meteorological drought on the vegetation index has been evaluated in Golestan province from 2001 to 2021.
 
2-Materials and Methods
In this study, the standardized precipitation-evaporation and transpiration index (SPEI) was calculated for 20 years in Golestan province, northern Iran. In different time scales, this index uses the simple relationship of water balance, that is, the difference between precipitation and potential evaporation and transpiration based on Thornthwaite's approach (Thornthwaite, 1948). In areas with non-dense vegetation, the complex combination of soil type, atmospheric effects, and vegetation reduces the possibility of extracting reliable information from satellite data. Therefore, efforts have always been made to provide vegetation indicators that can reduce the adverse effects of factors such as soil. In this research, the slope of the effect line between SPEI in different periods (3, 6, 9, and 12 months) was calculated as the independent variable, and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as the dependent variable. This calculation was based on the linear regression equations of Chatfield (2016). In general, a negative slope indicates an inverse relationship, a positive slope indicates a direct relationship, and the value of the slope indicates the degree of dependence of the variables. The slope of the effect along with the value of R2, which indicates the accuracy of linear regression, was obtained using the Earth Trend Modeler (ETM) tool set in TerrSet software.
 
3- Results and Discussion
Based on the obtained results, the months of March, April, and May have the most validity for evaluating the vegetation index. In other words, these 3 months have the highest EVI index, and as a result, the data from these 3 months were used to investigate the effect of meteorological drought on vegetation. In the study of Afzali Kardamehle and Behzadi (2023), the greatest impact of drought on vegetation in Golestan province was found in April and September. According to the results of March, for the 12-month SPEI, 29.34% of Golestan province correlated. This distribution includes the north-east of the province, i.e. Marave Tepe city and the border with Turkmenistan, and a narrow strip in the south-west of the province. In the 9-month SPEI, 28.46% of Golestan province had correlation, which includes the east (Kalaleh city), and parts of the west (Agh Ghala city). In the 6-month SPEI, 11.01% of Golestan province correlated. These areas include the center of the province from Agh Ghala to Azadshahr. In the 3-month SPEI, 31.19% of Golestan province had a correlation, which consists of the southwest of the province from Galikesh to Azadshahr. According to the results of April, for the 12-month SPEI, 14.57% of Golestan province correlated. These areas include the north of Agh Ghala city and Marave Tepe city. In the 9-month SPEI, 25.52% of Golestan province correlated. This area covers the northeast of the province, which includes Golestan National Park to Gonbad-e Kavus city. In the 6-month SPEI, 34.01% of Golestan province had correlation, which consists of the entire north of the province. In the 3-month SPEI, 25.89% of Golestan province had a correlation, which is in the south of the province and includes a narrow area (Kordkuy to Galiksh and Gonbad-e Kavus to Agh Ghala counties). According to the results of May, for the 12-month SPEI, a small part of Golestan province (8.34%) had a correlation, which includes Aliabad city. In the 9-month SPEI, 15.58% of Golestan province had a correlation, which consists of the southwest of the province from Gorgan to Kordkuy. In the 6-month SPEI, 54.19% of Golestan province had correlation, which includes the entire east of the province from Marave Tepe and Goli Dag and parts from Agh Ghala and Gorgan to Kordkuy in the west of the province.
 
4- Conclusion
Golestan province is located in several important complications, including the Alborz mountain, the Caspian Sea, and the desert of Turkmenistan, it has non-uniform and diverse climatic conditions, which have led to different vegetation conditions in it, and the results of this study confirm it. Also, anthropogenic factors are effective, which requires more extensive research in this field. The results of this research investigating the effects of meteorological drought on vegetation indicators in Golestan province can be used in the management of vegetation and water resources of the province.

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References

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