Measurement of the Isfahan Metropolitan Resilience Against Climate Change with an Institutional Approach

After the 1970s, climate change and sustainability have become the biggest challenges of the present age, especially in cities. The approach of urban resilience in response to climate change is one of the most important solutions to deal with this issue, which is discussed under the title of climate resilience. This research has been conducted with the aim of evaluating and measuring the institutional resilience of 15 districts of Isfahan city against climate change with an institutional approach. The present study is considered as an applied study in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical research in terms of method. Library, field and questionnaire methods have been used to collect the required information and data. The three main dimensions of the institutional framework, institutional relations and institutional performance, have been evaluated to evaluate the level of resilience indicators. The ANP network analysis process has been used to determine the relative importance of the studied criteria and the Prometheus and Gaia model has been used to determine the resilience of regions against climate change. According to the results of the research, districts 9, 4, 3, 2 have a very favorable situation in terms of resilience against climate change from an institutional point of view, districts 5 and 6 have high resilience, districts 13, 7 and 12 have medium resilience, districts 11, 15 and 1, have weak resilience and districts 10, 8 and 14 are ranked last, and are among the most deprived regions in terms of having resilience indicators against climate change from an institutional perspective. the results of this study show that Isfahan city is exposed to climate changes, and due to its location in a dry region and changing its climate to semi-arid in recent years, it can affect the urban system and its residents. Finally, it can be said that Isfahan is not a stable city against climate change, and if the current situation continues, it will not be able to withstand climate change in the future.
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Today, climate change as the mother of possible natural disasters is no longer far-fetched, but is a current reality, in such a way that the damages caused by floods and storms have been repeated in these years, especially in cities where a lot of population and capitals have been accumulated. Cities are the main actors in climate change, therefore urban centers should be prepared with appropriate tools to encounter the effects of climate change. One of the most important ideas that has been proposed in the current decade in both crisis management and urban management is creation of resilient and resistant cities against different crises. Urban resilience is a potential to respond to urban systems before the disasters and after the crises occurrence. Resilience indices in combination with climate solutions (especially climate adaptation) have the ability to deal with the effects of climate change. Considering the special features of the megalopolis of Isfahan, including being the capital of the province, more concentration of administrative and economic centers of the province, the presence of timeworn and dense structures, the presence of the critical water basin of Zayandeh Rood, etc., this city is exposed to the dangers caused by the occurrence of horrible climatic hazards. Therefore, this necessity is seriously felt to measure the resilience of Isfahan city using different methods and models in order to take an effective step to reduce the damages caused by climate change and to make the city resilient by identifying the effective components in increasing the resilience of the studied area. More precisely, the goal of this study is evaluating and measuring the institutional resilience of the 15 districts of Isfahan city against climate change. In order to achieve the goal, the current study seeks to answer the following question: In terms of resilience against climate change, in what situations are the different regions of Isfahan city?  and how much resilient are they?
2-Materials and Methods
This research is of applied type and has used the analytical-descriptive method for investigating the studied parameters. The statistical population includes residents of 15 districts of Isfahan city, experts and connoisseurs. To evaluate institutional resilience indices, three main indices of institutional base, institutional relations and institutional performance were used in the form of 18 indices which were collected through a questionnaire at 15 districts of Isfahan city. In order to express the relative importance of each of the indices, Analytical Network Process (ANP) has been used. In this research, Super Decisions software was used to determine the indices, Visual PROMETHEE software was used to run the model, and GIS software was used to draw the output. The model used for data analysis is Promethee multi-criteria decision making model and Gaia analysis.
3- Results and Discussion
The average annual temperature at this station in 1979 was 23.34 degrees Celsius, which has reached 24.44 degrees Celsius in 2020. Therefore, according to statistical analysis, the annual temperature at this station has been increasing from 1979 to 2020, also, the average amount of summer and winter rainfall in Isfahan city has decreased during 1979-2020. The ranking of the 15 districts of Isfahan city in terms of resilience against climate change based on the Prometheus model shows that regions 9, 4, 3, 2 ranked first to fourth with scores of 0.1296, 0.1074, 0.0267 and 0.0254 respectively. These districts have a very favorable situation in terms of resilience against climate change. Districts 5 and 6 have high resilience by obtaining net flow of 0.0133 and 0.0109, respectively. Districts 13, 7, and 12 have a moderate resilience status with a net flow of 0.0067, 0.0024, and 0.0022. Districts 11, 15, and 1 have a weak resilience status with a net flow of -0.0187, -0.281, and -0.0390, respectively. Districts 10, 8, and 14 are in the last rank with gross flow of -0.0524, -0.0802, and -0.1062, respectively, and are among the most deprived districts in terms of institutional resilience against climate change. According to PROMETHEE arc pattern, the 14th district of Isfahan city has the most weak indices (-1). In other words, only three indices of the responsibility of governmental organizations in times of crisis (X6), officials' planning to prevent the consequences and damages caused by climate change (X7) and the cooperation of local organizations in providing the necessary trainings to deal with climate change regularly. In schools and other institutions (X11), are in the strong part (1+) of the arc pattern. The rest of the variables are placed in the weak area (-1) of the arc pattern. Regionally, in the city of Isfahan, region 14 has the most negative structure (-1) and region 4 has the most positive structure (+1) in the arc pattern. Also, in districts 4 and 9, all indices are in a positive position, and these two districts are more resilient to climate changes compared to other districts.
4- Conclusion
Generally, the results of this study show that Isfahan city is exposed to climate changes, and due to its location in a dry region and changing its climate to semi-arid in recent years, it can affect the urban system and its residents. The evidence shows that in recent years, Isfahan city has suffered unplanned and unregulated development, which has caused it to have weak climate resilience and great vulnerability to natural hazards. It can also be said that in most districts of Isfahan city, non-serious and far-fetched attitude towards the category of climate change from the residents, existing weaknesses in informing the relevant organizations about the necessary trainings in the field of preparation  to deal with climate change, lack of attention to specific groups in the category of dealing with climate change, lack of trust in institutions related to the climate change issue and unresponsiveness of service institutions have reduced the resilience of the Isfahan city against climate change, especially in marginal and less privileged districts, so that inattention and inattention to the issue of climate change can lead to many physical and human injuries in the future, especially in these districts and at the top of them, district 14. Finally, it can be said that Isfahan is not a stable city against climate change, and if the current situation continues, it will not be able to withstand climate change in the future.