The flood is devastating and destructive which may cause damages in urban areas. Resiliency to greater vulnerability emphasizes positive aspects, and today governments are working to improve life in the areas at risk by promoting resilience to natural disasters. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reaction of jiroft urban managers facing the flood as an environmental hazards with emphasis on resiliency. Library methods (books, articles, documents, internet ...) and field studies have been used to collect information. Statistical society of the research includes the urban managers in Jiroft city in which 20 participants were selected randomly using Delphi technique. Analyzing the data, statistical tests, one-sample t-test and stepwise regression and the DEMATEL and BWM model were used to prioritize the significance score and the effect of the indices. The results of a one-sample t-test for evaluating the local management response in promoting the spatial resiliency against flood in Jiroft city show that there is no significant difference between the base limit (3) and the calculated value of 3/17. The results of stepwise regression show that the institutional-managerial index with the beta coefficient of 0/347 has the highest effect, while the physical-physical index with the beta coefficient of 0/302 has the least effect on the resiliency management in Jiroft city. The results of DEMATEL technique show that among the indices affecting the resiliency of Jiroft, city against flood, the social index with 43/385 had the highest interaction and institutional-managerial index has with 43/352 minimum interaction, the social index with 1/474 the most effective factor and the economic index with the value of -1/008 is the most influential factor. The results of BWM technique reveal that social index with the value of /258 is placed in the first rank, institutional-managerial index with the value of /252 in the second rank, the physical-environmental index with the value of /245 in the third place and economic index with the value of /244 in the fourth rank.
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Today, cities and communities are mostly located in the places which are exposed both to natural disasters due to natural hazards, and various types of human accidents due to technological advances. In terms of occurrence, the flood is the highest and in terms of damage it is considered to be the most costly natural disaster in the world which has an impact on human societies. Meanwhile, the concept of resiliency is a new concept that should be the central concept of all disaster management and development programs in the community. Flood basins in Jiroft have been affected by floods in recent years, with many damages including land destructions and riverside gardens, the destruction of livestock, housing and public infrastructure such as road networks and communication bridges and even deaths. Therefore, promoting the resilience of the city of Jiroft against natural hazards, especially floods, is imperative for urban managers to be prepared. The purpose of this study is to assess the role of urban managers in promoting resiliency in the face of flood in Jiroft city.
2-Materials and Methods
Regarding the main objective of the research, library methods (books, articles, documents, internet ...) and field studies have been used to collect information. Statistical society of the research includes the urban managers in Jiroft city in which 20 participants were selected randomly using delphi technique. Statistical tests, one-sample t-test and stepwise regression were applied to analyze the data. Moreover, DEMATEL technique was applied to determine the importance of the coefficient and prioritize the criteria using MATLAB and BWM software LINGO 11 software.
3-Results and Discussion
The results of the single sample T for measuring the resilience of Jiroft city managers against the flood crisis in the sample population indicate that there is no significant difference between the baseline (3) and the calculated value (3/17) (sig = 179) . Since the calculated value is more than standard, it can be concluded that the city of Jiroft is in a relatively suitable position in terms of the role of urban management in the face of crises and disasters caused by the flood.
Multiple regressions can be used to measure the factors of the Jiroft city's flood alleviation and create a causal model that illustrates the interactions between indicators and reagents. In general, the institutional-management index with the beta coefficient of 0/347 has the highest effect, while the physical-environmental index with the beta coefficient of 0/302 has the least effect on resilience of the Jiroft city to the flood.
Dimetal model in overlapping multiple regression and to achieve the research goal. Among the indicators that affect the resilience of the flood in Jiroft, the social index with the highest value of 43/358 is the most interaction and the institutional- managerial index with the least amount of interaction with 43/352, the social index with the 1/741 most effective factor and the economic index with the value of -1/008. The most influential factor.
The final step in determining the rank of each factor affecting the resilience of the city of Jiroft is the model of the best and worst method that the researchers will achieve in their final destination. The results of the best and worst case model show that the social index with the value of 0/258 is ranked first, institutional-management index with the value of 0/252 in the second rank, the physical-environmental index with a value of 0/254 in the third, and, finally, the economic index with The value of 0/244 is in fourth place.
According to the statistical tests and multi-index models used in the research, there is a significant relationship between urban management and flood. In other words, the greater the response of urban management, the lower the risk of flood. The current status of Jiroft city resilience management is in desirable condition in all indicators. In other words, the average of all indicators is higher than the base (3). In this regard, Farzad Behtash et al in evaluating and analyzing the dimensions and components of the resilience of the metropolitan city of Tabriz, estimated the average of the Tabriz city's wavering (less than 3), which suggests that the city Tabriz is in an unfavorable situation in terms of resilience. In other words, the condition of the city of Tabriz is inappropriate. Therefore, it can be admitted that, in spite of the difference in the location of the city, the two cities of city management have had a different experience in dealing with the flood crisis.
4-Conclusion
The results of a one-sample t-test for measuring the local management response in promoting the spatial resiliency against flood in Jiroft city show that there is no significant difference between the base limit (3) and the calculated value of 3/17. The results of stepwise regression show that the institutional-managerial index with the beta coefficient of /347 has the highest effect and the physical-physical index with the beta coefficient of /302 has the least effect on the resiliency management in Jiroft city. The results of DEMATEL technique show that among the indices affecting the resiliency of Jiroft city against flood, the social index with 43/385 had the highest interaction, institutional-managerial index with 43/352 has the minimum interaction, the social index index with 1/474 the most effective factor and the economic index with the value of -1/008 is the most influential factor. The results of BWM technique reveal that The results of BWM technique reveal that social index with the value of /258 is placed in the first rank, institutional-managerial index with the value of /252 in the second rank, the physical-environmental index with the value of /245 in the third place and economic index with the value of /244 in the fourth rank.