Identification and Analysis of Cross-Impacts of Key Factors and Assessing the Level of Regional Sustainability with a Strategic Foresight Approach (A Case Study of Northern Khorasan Province)
Morteza
Mohamadpourjaberi
دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
author
Iesa
Ebrahimzadeh
استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان،زاهدان، ایران
author
Mojtaba
Rafieian
دانشیار گروه شهرسازی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
author
Ramin
Saed Moocheshy
مدرس گروه شهرسازی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران مرکز، تهران، ایران
author
text
article
2016
per
In the current era, characterized by uncertainty, initiative, and complexity of issues, the traditional planning system faces various challenges. In fact, lack of identification, analysis, and implementation of key factors in regional development is considered as one of the weaknesses of regional planning systems. Therefore, the present research has been conducted with a foresight approach aiming to identify key factors in development of Northern Khorasan province. This study has applied the technique of analyzing cross-impacts. Besides, MICMAC software has been used to analyze the data. The results of analyzing the effectiveness of factors indicate an unsustainable situation in the regional system of northern Khorasan province. Applying the results obtained from this research and the initial factor analysis, 17 key factors were identified in the development of the region. Out of these factors, “development of new main roads for trans-provincial connections”, “existence of integrated rural territories”, “geopolitical situation of the province in relation to the Eastern Asia road”, “promotion of intra-provincial secondary roads in line with development of the settlement system”, “relative balance at the top of the urban system of the province”, “straightening border markets”, and “A variety of economic sectors with an average functionality” are the key factors which can be used as a base to outline scenarios and spatial allocation at provincial level. The result of these studies and identification of key factors are a basis for sustainable policymaking of spatial development in the future of the province that can integrate all the sectional and spatial measures and scenario makings at local levels into itself. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction In the present era, characterized by uncertainty, initiative, and change, the urban and regional planners have been increasingly trying to apply various forms of future-oriented approaches and strategic planning to respond the challenges created by contemporary evolutions, competitions among cities, sustainability agenda, evolution of urban governance, etc. The predominant scale and intensity of urban and regional problems in the world suggest that the current planning practices and processes cannot efficiently actualize their primary goals. In fact, the traditional planning approaches neither recognize today’s challenges, nor face them. During the recent decades, future studies have been widely used in the planning of regional development called “regional foresight”. Besides, future studies have significantly expanded the recognition of processes and the forces which make the future. Moreover, they involve a wide range of methods and techniques providing the ability to discover what lies ahead in the form of a systematic, exact and comprehensive method. One of the initial steps-and indeed the most basic step- in the process of regional planning with a foresight approach is the identification of key strategic factors and the main drives and its position in long-term development of regions. Hence, identification and analysis of key factors of development can be considered as a driving force for regional development in long-term regional planning and policy making which might be also effective and useful factors in outlining the long-term perspective of the province for citizens, decision-making managers, stakeholders and investors. From this perspective, the basic question of the present research is: why is northern Khorasan province been separated from the greater Khorasan province as an independent province since 2004, despite having geographic, economic, and economic potentials, still positioned among the country’s disadvantaged provinces? Is the slow process of development and progress in northern Khorasan province due to not identifying and moving towards key development factors? 2- Materials and Methods The present research is an applied study, and it is a normative-analytical research in terms of its nature based on future studies. This research has been conducted with a combination of library and survey methods. Initially, a collection of factors affecting the development of the region including 5o factors were extracted from regional plans as well as experts’ views. In the second stage, a matrix of factors was designed which was was completed by 13 experts in planning and development and the administrators who were aware of the issues of regional development; then, the relationships between the factors and the degree of their interaction were analyzed and classified into two categories of direct and indirect effects. Cross-Impacts table of MICMAC software was used to perform the calculations. 3- Results and Discussion Results of analyzing the distribution pattern of factors on the Cross-Impacts axis demonstrate the instable situation of the regional system of northern Khorasan province. The effective factors are generally those factors which are outside the decision-making scope in the region and have national and international dimensions; and in contrast, the affected factors are generally the result of other planning, policy-makings, and decision-makings. The affecting factors include such factors as oil price, location of the province in relation to East Asia road, control of inflation and economic growth. The affected factors, which are also considered as the resulted factors, are the factors called “promoting the level of social security services”, “local-indigenous sports”, and “local-indigenous arts”. Comparing the findings of these studies with the present research indicates some similarities in methodology, and distinction in the results as well as unsustainability in the interaction system of factors on each other which can be considered as the result of the current poor planning system, and lack of study and management of the level of interaction among development factors of regions. 4- Conclusion The present research has dealt with identification and analysis of key development factors of northern Khorasan region. Analyzing 50 primary factors, 17 factors were finally derived from the views of experts and administrators. The factors were recognized as key factors in the development of the province which have a relatively high diversity and involve a wide range of factors ranging from international to national and regional, economic, social, and physical factors. Out of the factors, the ones such as “development of new main roads for trans-provincial connections”, “existence of integrated rural territories”, “geopolitical situation of the province in relation to the East Asia road”, "promotion of intra-provincial secondary roads in line with development of the settlement system”, “relative balance at the top of the urban system of the province”, “straightening the border markets”, and “A variety of economic sectors with an average functionality” can be considered as the key factors which can be used as an outlining basis to study the scenarios for development of the region. In conclusin, it can be argued that the most important characteristic of the province can be the diversity of factors and lack of one or more factors with strong impact. At the provincial level, there is an extensive ethical and lingual diversity, as well as a wide diversity in agricultural, garden, livestock, and industrial products which have made its potentials multi-dimensional and divers. Besides, this important factor can be applied in policy-makings and decision-makings.
Geography and Environmental Sustainability
Razi University
2322-3197
6
v.
3
no.
2016
1
17
https://ges.razi.ac.ir/article_628_3e939217cc503ff6dd6a510183844b39.pdf
Modeling the hillside movement in the area of Sattarkhan dam reservoir using by predictive models Logistic Regression and Neural Network
soghra
andaryani
Tabriz university
author
Nasrin
Samandar
Tabriz university
author
Ohammadreza
Nikjoo
دانشیار ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
author
text
article
2016
per
Slope instabilities are considered as one of the major dangers to human activities which occurred in natural slopes and the slopes made by humans. This study aimed to identify the factors affecting the occurrence of slope instability using logistic regression models and artificial neural network in Ahar Sattar khan dam basin. The results of statistical models to determine the potential areas of instability and ultimately create a hazard zonation map for the study area. In this regard, the most important factors in landslides such as slope, aspect, elevation, rainfall, distance from the road, fault and drainage, land use and exploration and peculiarities of each of them were identified. Standardization base of histogram model is by cutting the classes of each layer with occurred landslides. The models show that the very high-risk area in the neural network and logistic regression are 724 and 5/56 per cent respectively which cover the areas close to Sattar khan dam, mainly including the lithology of these areas located in the regions with lower resistance. Besides, Statistical methods Logistic prove that faults and lithology have an immense impact on the occurrence of landslide in this area. The ROC index value for neural network and logistic regression models are 0/85 and 0/81. So it can be said neural network model for zoning of landslides is more efficient, so any planning and construction must be compatible with the conditions of geomorphology and geology of the area leading to as least human and financial losses as possible.
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Evaluation of slope instabilities such as many of the most complex issues of environmental hazards are considered as the important factors in the occurrence of slope instability, mostly due to the variety of issues. Despite the uncertainty caused by being vague, incomplete and ambiguous terms and concepts related to parameters such as geology, hydrology, tectonics, vegetation, rainfall, erosion, temperature fluctuations, the impact of ice and the instability domain make the need for accurate and convenient methods seem reasonable. This method is quite small and the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable to quantify and anti-log coefficients and coefficients are specified. Considering the background of selected models, the area of Sattar Ahar dam, having a lot of slope motion phenomena, is regarded as a prone area, therefore, applying this model, we can make sure about the validity of the findings. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of risk factors using statistical models of logistic and neural network in the catchment area around the dam of Sattarkhan Ahar in East Azerbaijan.
2- Materials and Methods
study area around the Sattar khan dam with an area equal to 48/147 square kilometers, is located 11 km west of Ahar. The basin is a part of Ahar-chai River Basin. In the present study, artificial neural network and logistic regression models were used to map the landslide hazard around the area of Ahar Sattar Khan. Neural network model is a computational mechanism which is able to capture data and calculate a set of new information. This model is superior to other methods, including artificial neural network that is independent from the statistical distribution of data and does not require special statistical variables. Compared to other statistical analysis, logistic regression model requires fewer assumptions and normal distribution of variables, non-linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. This method is quite small and the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable to quantify and anti-log coefficients and coefficients are specified. To use logistic regression and neural network models, it is required to use a set of data includeing both data and track their documents. Data, documents, library studies, topographic maps with a scale 1/50000, geological map at a scale of Ahar 1/250000 registered land slide points on satellite images Quick Bird, Google Earth Systems and data from earth observation and photography of occurred landslides. Digital elevation layer of polyester is the one with a pixel size of 30 meters and meteorological data and climatological Water Authority. In this study, a total 10 factors, including mass movements, lithology, faults, elevation, slope, aspect, land use, distance ftom road, maps of precipitation and drainage network congestion and study have been used.
3- Results and Discussion
Effective layers of factors in the instability range layers should be made to map landslide hazard, the factors are suggested to be more than 10. In this study, two methods of artificial neural network and logistic regression models were used to map the zoning and sensitive areas around the reservoir in the area of Sattar Khan Ahar. The factors contributing to the occurrence of occurred landslides in the study area were prepared to enter the models. After extracting all the layers on the next phase, each extracted layer and the layer of mass movements are crossed. Mapping data for the final application and verification of each map was done by ROC showing high accuracy. In this study, the distance from river, lithology, faults and slope play an important role in landslides of the area. Besides, the data from 1500 pixels and non-slip sliding grid are used to train and test, in which 1000 pixels were used for training and 500 pixels network testing.
4- Conclusion
According to zoning map output, the danger of probable slope motions in both models areas is in the range of high risk. Therefore, the potential for instability in the region is very high and it is urgent to plan and control the measures. High-risk areas in logistic model is 5/56 percent and 7/24 percent in the neural network model. As a result, it can be said that in addition to natural factors, human factors, including incorrect road, have an important role in the occurrence of unstable slopes. It is necessary to avoid land use change and ecosystems to reduce the risks and increase the stability of slopes. Technical review areas of potential mass movements must fit the model number of criteria. Since the model used in this study have a lot of criteria and sub-criteria, the findings have high accuracy.
Geography and Environmental Sustainability
Razi University
2322-3197
6
v.
3
no.
2016
19
37
https://ges.razi.ac.ir/article_629_7b307293bb0e434f558818a1b5f97341.pdf
Sustainability Measurement of Farming System in Isfahan Agricultural Sector (Smallholders-Rural Production Cooperatives- Farm Corporation)
Saedali
Nekooei Naenii
asistant of isfahan rural cooperative society
author
Yosef
Ghanbari
ACADEMIC STAFF
author
Hamid
Barghi
ACADEMIC STAFF
author
text
article
2016
per
Low productivity in agricultural sector, inappropriate use of production factors to enhance product performance during the last decade as a result of adverse environmental degradation and the need for sustainable production and food security prove the importance of the sustainability of the agricultural farming systems. This study is aimed to assess the sustainability of agricultural farming system, including smallholders, rural production cooperatives and Farm Corporation. The statistical population consisted of 17362 members of rural production cooperatives, 635 members of Farm Corporation and 85405 smallholders. The sample size is calculated by using Cochran formula and the appropriate assignment to each cooperatives and smallholders. The results showed that the standardized complex index of farm Corporations and rural production cooperatives are semi stable while smallholder system is unstable. Dimension farm Corporation is economically more stable than the other two systems, while less stable than the others with social dimension. Besides, social dimension of rural production cooperatives is more stable than other two farming systems. Moreover, environmental dimension is less stable to farm Corporation. Smallholder farming system in term of three dimensions especially economic dimension which is unstable. Economic strengthening small farmers system could be regared due to the fact that is a major percentage of farmers in Iran to increase the sector's degree of sustainability.
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Low productivity in the agricultural sector, inappropriate use of production factors to enhance product performance during the last decade as a result of adverse environmental degradation and the need for sustainable production and food security prove the importance of sustainability of the agricultural farming systems. The basic condition for the sustainable use of nature is the observation of natural resources capacity. Indeed, this capacity is also determined by analysis or stability measurement. Stability Analysis is the basis and criteria to determine environmental standards in order to show the utilization of resources and control screw. Analysis the degree of stability in a decisive and stable condition and the measurement of the distance between the original and the new situation are considered as peripheral phenomena. At the same time the analysis of resource capacity and economic sustainability are analyze and controled in relation to production needs. Stability measurement is a complex interaction between technology, the environment and society.
Farming systems are the most important and fundamental issue in agriculture sector in any country. In Iran, the biggest obstacle to the agricultural development and the realization of its strategic goals and structural barriers are related to farming systems. The optimal use of soil and water resources and increase production and productivity per unit, improve the quality of agricultural products through the land consolidation,training, promotion and application of modern agricultural science and technology, promotion of mechanization, scientific management, proper use of existing facilities with an emphasis on restoring an preserving the environment and prevent the destruction or waste of resources changing the hardware systems and even removing barriers, expand the area under cultivation or solving this structural problem, the creation of a qualitative transformation in the structure of agriculture, especially in agricultural systems are related to farming system.
2- Material and Methods
As a matter of fact, it was impossible to collect data of 17362, 635, and 85405 farmers belonged to agriculture cooperatives, farm corporation and smallholder farmers, respectively due to geographical scope of the research included the province of Isfahan, and the widespread distribution of the statistical population. Therefore, it was decided to take samples. The sample size was calculated using Cochran's formula. Moreover, the sample size for each company and smallholder farmers systems were calculated by proportional assignment. Using random sampling method, the beneficiaries’ sample was selected. This research has been conducted as a combined study (quantitative and qualitative), applied research, descriptive (non-experimental) and the cross-sectional surveys. The date needed for documentary and field research (questionnaires and interviews) were collected. In this study, Shannon entropy method was used to analyze the data collected.
3- Results and Discussion
The development of agriculture is not only an underlying necessity in the society, but also an inevitable extremity. The results from various studies suggest that the improvement of the agricultural production shall not be achieved unless the farming system is revised and reformed in line with the principles of a sustainable agriculture as the pivot of agricultural developments. The results show that small farming system is unstable in 17 villages, while in 10 villages is semi stable and the remaining 2 villages are in stable condition. Besides, 12 rural production cooperatives have unstable condition, eight cooperatives in a semi stable and remaining consist of eight rural production cooperatives are in stable condition, farming stock corporation is in stable condition. Farming Corporation is more stable in economic and environmental dimensions than the other two farming systems. In social dimension as membership in the local community, participation in agricultural activities small farming system is more stable than the other two farming systems, in economic dimension is unstable and in environmental dimension is semis table. Rural production cooperatives are unstable in economic and environmental dimensions and semi stable in social dimension.
Farming Corporation is semi stable in economic and social dimensions and unstable in environmental. Increased using of nitrogen fertilizers, phosphate and pesticides have caused instability in all three types of farming systems. The magnitude of the instability is less in farming corporation than other two farming system for reasons of using technical factors.
4- Conclusions
The average total income by production in smallholder farmers system is considered as one of unsustainable indices in the region, so certificating a price proportional to the production costs will be beneficial to increase the agricultural income. Despite applying the relatively new science and technology in planting, growing, and harvesting operations, the same index is unsustainable in thefarm corporation system, mainly due to the impact of the amount of dividends paid to cooperative members for the ability of managers. So, it is emphasized that related governmental organization pay special attention to pick out the qualified candidates for the Board of Directors in order to committee the managers and specialists with high throughput in the field of agriculture.
Due to unsustainability of farm corporation in terms of the social dimension, it is recommended to apply innovative methods and cooperative approach in the formation of t. Besides, it is important to participate in these corporations during their establishment which depends on the performance of the corporations’ managers.
Considering the fact that all three types of farming systems are unsustainable in terms of environmental dimension (smallholder farmers is most unsustainable, followed by rural production cooperatives and Farm Corporation), it shows few applied research conducted in this sector leading to the improvement of agricultural products and application ofnative technology in accordance with cultivation environment. Efficient research and development centers are essential to solve the environmental unsustainability in various aspects of agricultural production, which should be on the agenda of the agricultural research and development centers.
Geography and Environmental Sustainability
Razi University
2322-3197
6
v.
3
no.
2016
39
53
https://ges.razi.ac.ir/article_630_8224b8e331aafbde9b445ef5b2a9d939.pdf
Studying the Structural and Non-structural Solutions for Sustainable Water resources Management of Hamedan-Bahar Plainn
Saed Ehsan
Fatemi
استادیار مهندسی آب، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران
author
Ali
Bahramloo
کارشناس ارشد مهندسی آب، دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه، ایران
author
Mohammad Hosain
Adeb Rad
استادیار مهندسی آب، دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه، ایران
author
text
article
2016
per
Ekbatan Dam and groundwater resources in Hamedan-Bahar plain are the main suppliers of drinking water in Hamedan city. The aim of this study is to evaluate drinking water supply in the medium-term time horizons (1410) and long term (1430). Therefore, resource system, consumption area of Ekbatan dam and underground provider are modeled by WEAP using 40-year-old statistics. calibrating the findings, the actual conditions of use and watershed resources in the current situation (in 1391) and both unauthorized and authorized the withdrawal of underground water source were modeled. The results showed that water shortage of Hamedan is around 2.8% annually. Having per capita expenditure per person as well as the urban population estimated in the aforesaid period, at first, the demand for drinking water is calculated. Then, considering water demand to be constant in other sectors, water demand was modeled. The results showed that about 19.6% and 34. 4% in 1410 and 1430 respectively face water shortage. The situation was almost the same in other sectors. Due to constant water resources and significant deficiencies in the research horizons, respectively, structural and non-structural solutions and their effects were tested. However, it was observed that structural measures alone are not helpful. That is why non-structural solutions on side structural solutions were proposed and examined.
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
As Iran is located in the arid and semi-arid region, it has an increasing population rate and developing irrigation and industry sectors, it has faced water scarcity. (Mohie and Moussa, 2016) and (Xue et. al., 2015) have applied the WEAP model including some scenarios to analyze water resources scarcity in long term periods. These scenarios are considered as new irrigation methods, modifying crop pattern and water distribution networks and changing water allocation policy. (Samboum et. al., 2015), (Hollerman et. al., 2010) and (Mehta et. al., 2015) added the effects of climate changes on water resources scenarios to previous ones. Hafezparast and Fatemi, (2016) investigated water and water basin sustainability indexes to evaluate the water scarcity in the Gamasiab water sub basin using WEAP model. They stated the best scenario is calculated by multi criteria decision making approach. Ekbatan Dam and groundwater resources in Hamedan-Bahar plain are the main suppliers of drinking water. The aim of this study is to evaluate the drinking water supply in medium-term time horizons (1410) and long term (1430) using WEAP model.
2- Materials and Methods
In order to simulate water resources and consumption in the Ekbatan water basin, the data during the period from 1973 to 2012 were used and modeled by WEAP model. In this study five water management scenarios were used as following:
Increasing of population rate, increasing of irrigation efficiency, using water transfer out of water sub-basin, reducing the loss of water supply network and adjusting of per capita consumption. Moreover, three operating rules are considered in Ekbatan reservoir system including allocating the available water to any water users, minimizing the water deficit and flood risk and finally managing the environmental resources.
The amount of environmental flow requirement in downstream of reservoirs are considered by Montana method (1976). Data calibration in WEAP model has been done by trial and error. As, Ekbatan dam has operated in 1963 and there were none hydrometric stations in the downstream, observed and calculated storage capacity in each periods were used to model for calibration.
3- Results and Discussion
After applying the structural scenarios 2031, there was no significant water deficit on water user sectors, but due to increasing of water consumptions in 2051, it overpassed the limitation. So that other scenarios would be considered able enough to overcome this difficulty. By adding the non-structural scenarios to structural scenarios, all water users would be supplied in 2031 and 2051.
4- Conclusion
The present study aims to present sustainable management of water resources in Ekbatan water basin. Therefore, current situation of the water basin and short-term and long-term water resources and consumption have been modeled. The structural and non-structural scenarios are defined to supply any water demands. Due to constant water resources and significant deficiencies in the research horizons, respectively structural solutions were initially provided. However, it was observed that structural measures alone are not helpful. That's why non-structural solutions and their effects on side structural solutions were proposed and examined
Geography and Environmental Sustainability
Razi University
2322-3197
6
v.
3
no.
2016
55
67
https://ges.razi.ac.ir/article_631_36117beb4cfe5c3a1ae8b38341401b85.pdf
Analysis the Degree of Development and Spatial Inequalities of Agricultural Sector in Kurdistan Province from 1996 to 2016
Hosein
Nazmfar
دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقّق اردبیلی، اردبیلT ایران
author
Anvar
AmanoIapour
University of mohaghegh ardebili
author
text
article
2016
per
The study of inequality and its Existence in different geographic areas has attracted the attention of programmers and politician in recent years. In our country suffering from space intra-regional and between-regional disparities in several cases, paying attention to spatial inequality in different aspects and indexes is necessary. In this regard, the aim of this research is the examination of the developmental level and spatial inequality and the analysis of developments of this spatial inequality of the agricultural sector among the cities of Kurdistan since 1996 to 2016. The research is a descriptive-analytic one which is performed in all cities of Kurdistan regarding political-administrative territory of this province in 1996 and 2016. Since the balanced development needs exact and comprehensive examination, there are 26 indices of agricultural sector in this study. Multi-criteria decision-making model “ELECTRE“ is used to examine the assumptions and analysis of data. The benchmark value of all indices is calculated by ANP method. Moreover, Williamson factor is used to examine the spatial inequality in all cities of Kurdistan, and Pearson Coefficient of Skewness is used to examine the distribution infrastructure. The findings show that the level of development has increased from 1996 to 2016 in the cities of Kurdistan, but relative convergence has not achieved. Besides, it is determined that core-periphery model has been the prevailing theory in distribution of agricultural infrastructure in this province. Therefore, Sanandaj has been considered as the most developed one while Sarvabad and Kamyaran are the least developed in agricultural sector indicators. Moreover, distribution infrastructure has positive skewness. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction Due to the fact that agriculture plays a vital role in economy, nowadays some concerns have been created about the potential of this sector as a stable income todecrease poverty of farmers and food security in urban and rural areas. The reason for these concerns is that the agricultural environment and rural areas have faced unprecedented environment problems particularly during last two decades. In Iran, like in other developing countries, agriculture is one the most important parts of economy which encompasses a significant percentage of production and employment. Therefore, this research aimed at determining the level of development in agricultural sector of Kurdistan provinces’ cities and determining inequality of agriculture development of them (during two years 1996, 2016). In this study, some methods were used including: analytical network process for achieving weight of indicators, ELECTRE model for determining the development of agricultural sector, Williamson inequality method to study the spatial inequality and Pearson's Skewness factor for the distribution of agricultural indicators in the province. Therefore, the main subject of this study, according to 26 indicators surveyed in both periods, is “which cities of Kurdistan provinces’ are appropriate in terms of having agricultural development indicators and which of them are deprived. Besides, they are trying to find how the spatial inequality and the distribution of facilities and agricultural are infrastructure. 2- Materials and Methods In this applied and descriptive-analytical research, the required information and data related to the infrastructures of agricultural development in the cities of Kurdistan provinces was collected using the Census of Agriculture and Census of Kurdistan province. EXCEL software was used in order to make database for statistical operations. Afterward, the prosperity rate in any of Kurdistan cities was analyzed based on 26 agricultural indicators from 1996 and 2016. Then, the city ranks were determined using the “multi-criteria decision making” method and the importante factor of infrastructural criteria was found using the “analytical network process”. Finally, the spatial inequality and distribution of agricultural infrastructures in cities were determined using the Pearson's Skewness factor. 3- Results and Discussion As mentioned before, agricultural indicators were analyzed in the Kurdistan province. Multi-criteria decision making” method was used to analyze the indicators. Besides, the rate of citie development was determined. Based on specified results, after obtaining effective coordinated and uncoordinated matrixes, the general matrix was calculated and the final rank of cities was obtained based on the amount of losses and wins. Also, Table 1 shows that, in terms of agricultural indicators, Sanandaj Ranked 1 and Dehgolan and Sarvabad cities ranked 8 among 10 cities of Kurdistan in 1996 and 2016. The rate of spatial inequality was 39.42 in 1996 and 33.58 in 2016 according to the results of Williamson inequality method. Also, Pearson's Skewness factor was 0.3 in 1996 and 0.56 in 2016 that show the asymmetric distribution of agricultural infrastructures in both 1996 and 2016. Table1: the result of investigating agricultural indicators using ELECTRE model in 1996 and 2016 Baneh Bijar Dehgolan Divandareh Sarvabad Saghez Sanandaj Qorveh Kamyaran city 0 1 -7 -1 -7 5 9 1 -3 Final amount 1996 5 4 8 6 8 2 1 4 7 rank -3 -1 -5 4 -9 6 9 1 -4 Final amount 2016 6 5 8 3 9 2 1 4 7 rank For, according to 26 surveyed indicators in both periods (75 and 95), some theories in the field of agriculture in Kurdistan cities should be discussed to survey the main enquires of this research: Despite the different methods and indicators, the results of previous researches coincide with the current research findings especially in developed and undeveloped provinces. Shahraki and Sardar Shahrahi (1393) have investigated the rate of development in Sistan and Baluchistan provinces’ cities with an emphasis on major agricultural indicators. The findings showed that Zabol, Zahedan, Saravan, Chabahar and Khash city are relatively developed cities in terms of agricultural indicators which is consistent with the current research findings because provincial capitals are the most prosperous in agricultural part. Also, in this research, analytical network process, in which internal comparison of indicators is possible, was used for indicators and ELECTRE model in which the review of qualitative and quantitative indicators is possible. 4- Conclusion The present research aims to study and compare the spatial inequality and development of agriculture in Kurdistan province in 1996 and 2016. The findings show that: Answering the first question, the findings indicate that in terms of prosperity of agricultural development indicators, Sanandaj city has had a suitable condition in two years (1996 and 2016) while Kamyaran city in 1996 and Dehgolan and Sarvabad cities in both years have had an unsuitable and unstable condition. Answering the second question, the rate of spatial inequality was 39.42 in 1996 and 33.58 in 2016 according to the results of Williamson inequality method. As it is clear, the rate of spatial inequality has declined in 2016 compared to 1996. Also Pearson's Skewness factor was 0.3 in 1996 and 0.56 in 2016 indicating the asymmetric distribution of agricultural infrastructures in both years.
Geography and Environmental Sustainability
Razi University
2322-3197
6
v.
3
no.
2016
69
87
https://ges.razi.ac.ir/article_632_3b7544c8c86dd0f2a61173871d0f1c1f.pdf
Comparative Study of Multiple Supervised Classification Methods to Map Land Use in Local and Regional Scales (Case Study:Kan and Karaj Rivers Basin)
Maryam
Alizadeh
کارشناس ارشد محیطزیست، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران
author
Rooholah
Mirzaee
استادیار محیطزیست، دانشگاه کاشان،، کاشان، ایران
author
Saedhosain
Kiya
استادیار مدعو محیطزیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
author
text
article
2016
per
Land management leading to sustainable development requires reliable and update data on land cover/use and mapping its changes at various spatial and temporal scales. In this aspect, water resources management also needs to assess land use and its changes across the basin to maintain water quality for a variety of uses. Thus, the primary goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of various spectral-based supervised classification methods of Operational Land Imager (OLI) data for mapping land use across the Kan and Karaj Rivers basin. At the Anderson Level 1 and 2, the basin’s land use was mapped in five and nine classes, respectively using a broad range of different supervised classification methods, including Parallelepiped, Minimum Distance, Mahalanobis Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Spectral Angle, Binary Encoding, Spectral Information Divergence, Neural Net and Support Vector Machine. All classification methods were verified using the Google Earth images and accurate ground control points, in which the Maximum Likelihood method of both levels with Kappa coefficient of 0.77 and 0.76 and overall accuracy of 84.94 and 80.70 percent, identified as the optimum method to map the land use at the local and regional scales respectively. In addition, following the named method, the Neural Net, Support Vector Machine and the Mahalanobis Distance methods also showed acceptable accuracy indicating that like the choice of classification method, precision in procedures and accuracy assessment of land use classification map is very important and could affect the results.
Extended Abstract
1-Introduction
Sustainable land management requires reliable and update data on land cover/use and mapping its changes at various spatial and temporal scales. In this aspect, water resources management also needs to assess land cover/use changes across the basin to maintain water quality for a variety of uses. Optical remote sensing plays a vital role in defining land cover/use and monitoring interaction between nature and human activities across various levels from local to regional scales. Furthermore, over the past decades, along with the development of computer science and information technology, different methods of land use mapping has been developed using remotely sensed data that provide cost-effective and accurate means to derive land cover/use resources information. Out of all factors that influence the complex process of land cover/use mapping, appropriate classification system and approaches affect the land cover/use outcomes. Thus, the primary goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of various spectral-based supervised classification methods of Operational Land Imager (OLI) data for mapping land cover/use across the Kan and Karaj Rivers basin.
2- Materials and methods: The Kan and Karaj Rivers basin is located in Tehran province and South Alborz Protected Area in Alborz province. Having a perfect and cloud-free coverage, three Operational Land Imager images were used to map the land cover/use of the Kan and Karaj Rivers basin. They were extraxted from the United States Geological Survey in 2013 and the 2 to 7 bands with 30m spatial resolution were combined. Then, at the Anderson Level 1 and 2, the basin’s land cover/use was mapped in five classes including built-up land, farmland, rangeland, bare land and water bodies and nine including built-up land, crop land, orchard, good-quality, moderate-quality and low-quality rangelands, bare land and rock areas and water bodies using a broad range of different supervised classification methods, including Parallelepiped, Minimum Distance, Mahalanobis Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Spectral Angle, Binary Encoding, Spectral Information Divergence, Artificial Neural Net and Support Vector Machine using ENVI software. Two separate categories of points from Google Earth, as training and ground control points, were taken for image classification and the classification accuracy assessment, respectively. In addition, these points for each land cover/use class were obtained in accordance with land cover/use map (1:250,000) from National Cartographic Center. All classification methods were verified using the Google Earth images and accurate ground control points. Besides, confusion matrices including Kappa coefficient, producer’s accuracy, user’s accuracy and overall accuracy were applied to make accurate assessment of supervised classification. Furthermore, at the Anderson Level 1 and 2, the area of land cover/use classes of three methods was obtained. They have acceptable Kappa coefficient
3- Results and Discussion: The findings from accuracy assessment of classification at the Anderson Level 1 and 2 showed that the Maximum Likelihood method with Kappa coefficient of 0.77 and 0.76 and overall accuracy of 84.94 and 80.70 percent were identified as the optimum method to map the land cover/use of the Kan and Karaj Rivers basin at the local and regional scales respectively. In addition, following the aforesaid method, at the Anderson Level 1, Artificial Neural Networks and Mahalanobis Distance methods and at the Anderson Level 2, the Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machine methods also showed acceptable Kappa coefficient in land cover/use mapping. Based on the findings, it could be concluded that the Artificial Neural Network method had better performance in the classification of land cover/use with different and high classes than other methods. Moreover, when the training points are low, the Support Vector Machine method had better performance and achieved to high accuracy than other methods. At the Anderson Level 1, the most and least differences between the land cover/use classes areas were related to rangeland and water bodies classes, respectively whereas at the Anderson Level 2, the most and least differences between the land cover/use classes areas were related to crop land and water bodies classes, respectively.
4- Conclusion: Based on the findings, Maximum Likelihood and Artificial Neural Network classification methods were more appropriate respectively, and had relatively stable performance than the other methods. So, apart of the method, acceptable land cover/use map only can be extracted by increasing the number of training points and accurately determining the location of training points in two Anderson levels. In summary, the results of this study indicated that like the choice of classification method, precision in procedures and accuracy assessment of land cover/use classification map are very important being able to affect the results.
Geography and Environmental Sustainability
Razi University
2322-3197
6
v.
3
no.
2016
89
103
https://ges.razi.ac.ir/article_633_6507e73a0c07b2d8ab4bbd15c2791cd8.pdf
The Assessment of Spatial Distribution of Industrial Development Components:
Case Study: Chaharmahal Bakhtiari Province
Bahman
Sahneh
استادیار جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه گلستان،گرگان، ایران
author
Ebraham
Moammari
کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران
author
Masuod
Savari
کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران
author
text
article
2016
per
Analyzing and comparing the level of Facilities enjoyment and identifying inequalities and imbalances within different geographical districts , leading to find the weaknesses and the appropriate policy to solve them, are of great importance, especially in order to identify different regions in terms of development. In this regard, industrial ranking, which has been done by Management and Planning Organization and Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade for years, is considered as a way to study changes in industrial development of country provinces. Using multi-criteria decision-making (TOPSIS and SAW), the current study aims to analyze and examine the development of industries in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province. This research is a kind of descriptive-analytic one approaching applied study. The data of Statistical Yearbook of 1392(solar year) were used in the research. Statistical software of EXCEL was utilized to analyze the data. TOPSIS results indicate that Shahrekord Parish with score of (1), is recognized as the most developed area. In terms of industrial index and Bon with a score of (0.00), it is identified as the poorest area Province. SAW Results show that Shahrekord with (0.679) points, is the most developed city, and Bon with score of (0.00) is the most deprived city in the Province. Therefore, reviewing development plans of the province is required in the future. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction The word development literally means expansion and improvement. Although, development has quantitative dimensions and in some cases may be considered synonymous with the word growth, it mainly has qualitative dimensions. Paying attention to industrial development and infrastructure is considered necessary in order to increase production and export. Besides, we need to make logical and consistent policies with real possibilities of different areas of the country. These policies, reinforcing the infrastructure in this sector, can lead to current state of industry as the manufacturer of alternative goods for the imports turn to export sector. Deep studies are required to identify relative advantages of industrial activities in different areas to direct the investments for their expansion. 2- Materials and Methods This is a kind of applied research which methodologically is descriptive - analytical. The data for this study were obtained through documentary and library studies. The population of the study included 9 cities of ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari in 1392(solar year) according to the last administrative political division. 13 indicators were used to evaluate the cities in terms of industrial development. Data analysis was performed using TOPSIS and SAW techniques and Excel software also entropy Shannon method has been utilized for Scoring. In this study, ranking is based on the rank-mean method. In fact, this method calculates the mean of the obtained ranks with the techniques used in the study. Then the figures are ordered from the highest to the lowest quantity. Pearson coefficient of skewness is used to consider the distribution of the industrial infrastructure in Chaharmahal Bakhtiari. The values are between 0, +3 or 0, -3 in which 0 means complete symmetric distribution while +3 or -3 shows complete asymmetry. 3- Results and Discussion Ranking shows that the indicators studied in the cities of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province are unequal in terms of spatial and industrial indices. According to the scores Shahrekord (0.921), Borujen (0.594), Lordegan (0.314) Koohrang (0.036), Saman (0.022), Bonn (0.000), are located in the first three ranks respectively. Thus, according to Topsis rating of SAW, Shahrekord and Bon, are the most developed and the poorest cities in terms of industry in the Province respectively. Thus, according to raking, Shahrekord and Bon, are the most developed and the poorest cities, respectively in terms of industrial development The results of Pearson model indicates that the distribution of industrial infrastructure in Chaharmahal Bakhtiari province is asymmetric with Negative skewness. Since it is possible to use more than one decision making process in a multi- valued decision making process, the results of the method is not always the same. In this study to merge the results of Saw and Topsis methods we used the ranks mean method. Based on this method, Shahre Kord, Broojen and Lordegan towns are the first three ranking areas respectively and Koohrang, Ben and Salmas towns are the next in industrial infrastructure ranking line. Calculation of the development coefficient indicates that Shahre Kord city is far more developed than the underdeveloped Ben and the inequality between these towns are in a great extent. 4- Conclusion To achieve equal industrial development, this study has tried to figure out the distribution of industrial indexes among the cities and their respective ranks. Calculations show a big gap and inequality among the cities of ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari which has been resulted from Comprehensive Approach toward industrial development in the region. This has led to imbalanced development in some areas. The results of both techniques reveal that Shahrekord has the first rank and Bonn is in the last place. However, establishment and installation of Mother Industrial factories, as well as Roads in some areas of the province, have played an important role in the development of the cities of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari. Besides, to decrease these differences, the city authorities can focus their efforts on the indexes that have the less rank so that they may get the load of underdevelopment from these areas.
Geography and Environmental Sustainability
Razi University
2322-3197
6
v.
3
no.
2016
105
121
https://ges.razi.ac.ir/article_634_fc4775957b6edc0a2dc085ce5d3a3400.pdf